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Electricity reached factories in 1882. Factory productivity didn't move for almost 40 years. The motor was never the bottleneck, and the same thing is happening to AI right now. Edison's Pearl Street station opened in New York in 1882. By 1899, electric motors powered less than 5% of machinery in American factories. A skeptic in 1900 could point at the dynamo and say it was everywhere except the productivity statistics. He'd have been right. The reason is the shape of the building. Steam…
firesidealpha@firesidealphaAug 23
Sam Altman admits he was wrong on AI's timeline and says society and the economy will adapt more slowly "I thought when we got to GPT-4, which was back in 2023, that very quickly after that there was going to be much more disruption, software businesses up for grabs right away, than it turned out to be." "I think I was wrong about a few things, but one in terms of the speed: the economy just has so much inertia." "People keep doing the same things, buying from the same company, wanting to use their tools the same way. I think this is actually a positive in many ways, and it's going to make this big transition go smoother and slower. I'm grateful for it." "But it means we've all been too ambitious on timelines. Even with this incredible technology, society and the economy will adapt more slowly."