Forethought's @TomDavidsonX on the overlooked RSI scenario where AI never "fooms" but progress still accelerates 2–3x: "When people say RSI, they're lazily assuming that it is gonna foom. Which is totally plausible." "I distinguish the foom and the fizzle scenario. In the fizzle scenario you have that recursive loop, but because the ideas are getting so much harder to find, the RSI isn't too scary. To be honest, I still think it's pretty scary in that scenario. We're talking about 2X, 3X the…

Theo Jaffee@theojaffee2d ago

SF people are increasingly conflating “RSI” with “foom”, as though automating AI R&D will *certainly* cause huge discontinuous speedups in the rate of model capability advancements on *all* tasks. In practice this could be much slower and more jagged