big fan and learn a lot from both of these guys but some of these numbers are hard to grasp here if I'm understanding correctly. tbf don't think they're presenting this as a base case, but also don't explicitly label it as the ultra bull case either. tried to do the "what I have to believe" for the rate of change and its eye watering. they're the AI experts, so can weigh appropriately but just humbly doing some math on the comments. Compute >Today: $10B-$15B/GW-year of contracted compute rent. Assuming 500K accelerators/GW and 85% utilization, that is $2.70–$4/GPU-hour. >Takeoff: $25B-$50B/GW-year, or $6.70-$13.40/GPU-hour. Dylan says this is what labs may need to pay to capture 70%-80% of new compute. >The jump: compute pricing rises 2x–4x while we're adding 10s of GW per year (more below). At $50B of peak inference revenue today, the spread over compute is $35B-$40B/GW. At $70B-$80B of future blended revenue density, the spread is $20B-$55B against scarcity pricing applied more broadly across entire fleets. Revenue >Today: Anthropic inference revenue has reached $50B/GW annualized on its highest-monetizing capacity. That is a peak on the inference slice, not its fleet-wide average. >Takeoff: Dylan sees $70B-$80B/GW blended by YE27 and $100B+/GW in the unconstrained case. Those equal $18.80–$21.50 and $26.90+ per utilized GPU-hour. >The jump: At 100 GW, applying $50B-$80B only to a 40% inference share produces $2T-$3.2T of revenue. Applying the $70B–$80B blended figure across the whole fleet produces $7T–$8T. At $3T, that is 1.7x Mag4 TTM revenue, 47% of global IT spending and 9% of US GDP. Physical build >Takeoff: Global AI IT additions: 30 GW in 2026 → 50 GW in 2027 → 70 GW in 2028 → 90-100 GW in 2029. >Implied US takeoff: Dylan has separately put US 2026 additions at ~20 GW of IT load = US near two-thirds of this year deployment held steady gives 20 → 33 → 47 → 60–67 GW. At 1.2 PUE, annual facility-power additions are +24 (2026) → +40 (2027)→ +56 (2028) → +72–80 GW (2029). >The jump: That requires FTM + BTM delivery to more than double by 2028 and triple by 2029. SemiAnalysis is more bullish this year than the mid-teens numbers I've been able to reconcile in 2026 and you still need to 3x from that year over 3 years. Capital >Today: combined cloud RPO/backlog is ~$2.3T. Top-five hyperscaler capex is expected to rise from $800B-$860B in 2026 to $1.1T-$1.3T in 2027. >Takeoff: 70%-80% of 70 GW means 49-56 GW of lab additions in 2028. At $40B-$60B/GW, that is $2T+ of capex (and equipment is moving up - i.e. memory + accelerators). At $25B-$50B/GW to rent compute, it is $1.2T-$2.8T of annual compute rent expense. >The jump: $2T-$2.8T is 1.5x-2.5x the entire top-five hyperscaler capex expected for 2027. Current economics vs. takeoff endpoint probably belong in separate cases but the rate of change btwn is insane regardless. I’m sure I’m missing something, but this is how I read the rate of change math.