Ryan believes we could get 3-6 years of AI progress at the current pace, but in a single year, once we automated AI R&D. So a jump as big as GPT 3.5 to Mythos in a single year. A big crux is whether you'd end up bottlenecked by data. It seems to that a big source of AI progress currently is human expert data, codified into RL environments and SFT data. Ryan doesn't think human expert data is a primary driver of AI progress, and this ended up being a fruitful debate during the conversation.