Most countries won't do what it takes to build their own frontier AI. But they don't want to be dependent on foreign AI without a backup. @SamWinterLevy and I argue there's a middle path: AI middle powers could retain 'AI Breakout Capacity'. There's precedent: Japan doesn't have a nuclear weapon, but always retains the capacity to build one on short notice. Middle powers can make strategic choices today to ensure their ability to build frontier systems tomorrow: onshore compute, secure…