Labs would love to keep their best models to themselves: makes them a lot harder to catch and less politically exposed. But it’s unstable because anyone can defect and win the outside market with a frontier model. At least as long as USG doesn’t accidentally stop defectors! There's an obvious upside to restriction, and I suspect we're partly seeing its effects already. Labs don't like fast-followers that eat at their margins, and they don't want to cause huge scandals, so they're incentivised…