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AI researcher @herbiebradley explains how we could go from today's "GPT-3 level" robotics to self-replicating space probes, with lunar manufacturing possible by 2035: "I have thought quite a lot about this. In general, it's obviously dependent on robotics progress. Robotics right now is maybe like the GPT-3 level or something. We can just expect it to progress to a more and more capable level." "I do think it's quite possible to train robotics control foundation models such that you can have…
Megatons to orbit & beyond is a critical piece of the K2 puzzle. The other parts are: massive amounts of solar cell production, AI chip production, millions of humanoid (general purpose) robots and a mass driver on the Moon. My guess is that ~1M Optimi plus ~1GW of solar will constitute the first Von Neumann Probe, a system capable of replicating itself entirely from local materials on any sufficiently large planet or moon. This would enable expansion of civilization throughout the galaxy and reaching K3.