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Planetary VC founder @ramez explains why the AI intelligence explosion may be much further away than people think, with the current feedback loop still 5–10x too weak to sustain itself: "The thing that has never made full sense about the FOOM story to me is this feedback loop: a better AI makes better algorithms, better chips, and that leads to an even better AI. But most problems are much harder than linear, so you have diminishing returns." "OpenAI very proudly said researchers are using…
MTS@MTSlive2h ago
FULL INTERVIEW: Ramez Naam says AI's self-improvement loop is 5 to 10 times too weak to take off on its own, even with no humans in the loop. OpenAI researchers used 124x more tokens per person and ran just 1.6x more experiments. He says the labs' own data doesn't match what their leaders are claiming. @ramez, founder and managing partner of Planetary VC, made the case on Noahpinion that the intelligence explosion isn't close yet. He joined @theojaffee and @schisofrenia to lay out the numbers behind it: 00:58 where's the intelligence explosion 03:08 124x more tokens, 7x more code, 1.6x more experiments 03:54 what a self-sustaining loop would actually take 05:11 why the labs' claims don't match their own system cards 09:48 AI capex vs big tech's free cash flow 11:20 why AI revenue growth will likely slow 14:03 why hyper-persuasion might not be possible 15:21 a teenager's 1,000 miles vs Waymo's 10 million 16:39 the math result that could break the loop open 18:28 why TasteVal doesn't measure real research taste 23:11 the one AI regulation he wants 24:39 why agent swarms have the worst scaling we've seen 27:24 Opus 5.5 stalling at 10 agents, and Columbus, Ohio vs Einstein
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