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a16z's David George, Sarah Wang, Alex Immerman, and Santiago Rodriguez on the State of Markets, from AI and infrastructure to the next investment cycles: 1. Tech is the everything cycle. High-tech equipment, software, and R&D are now about 55% of US capital spending, and the AI buildout just passed the railroads as a share of GDP. The five largest hyperscalers will spend about $780B on capex this year, heading past $1T in 2027, and demand still outstrips supply at every point in the…
Introducing our State of Markets pt 2, along with a companion podcast where we unpack the data and discuss what comes next. Tech is the everything cycle. Supply: putting the buildout in context, just passed railroads as % of GDP. The wisdom of Elon is real: the factory (or the datacenter!) is the product. Demand: diffusion is so, so early. Median AI vendor spending in the top 1% of companies is 8x that of the top 10%. Only about 30% of S&P 500 companies report a quantified AI impact, which means there’s a substantial opportunity in connecting models to a company's data and workflows. Diffusion into companies is one of the main themes of the next 5 years. We’re entering the agent work period. Only a few million users today, but applicable to billions of internet users with massive surplus created. META/GOOG monetize US users at $200+ per year today. Agent opportunity is much higher. Mega-trends the next 5 years: Consumer agents, Robotics, Autonomy, AI x bio, Personal health, Diffusion into enterprise, New era of American Dynamism. Much more in our SoM report here - https://t.co/K4vOy4x3J6 @a16z @sarahdingwang @aleximm @santiago__rdz