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Forethought’s @TomDavidsonX explains how Anthropic could test whether a software-only singularity is coming by seeing how fast each new Claude can recreate its last year of AI progress: "The first scary indicator is we're beginning to see an acceleration in internal algorithmic progress. That doesn't by itself tell you, is it gonna fully explode, or is it gonna be a brief acceleration." "Literally going from Claude 5 to Claude 5.5 is something like a 2X in how efficient these experiments are…
@1d ago
A new piece revisits Davidson & Houlden's "How quick and big would a software intelligence explosion be?". It argues that some of that paper's arguments for a fast SIE – such as the "undertrained" nature of the human brain relative to "Chinchilla optimal" scaling – are weak, and that the fastest version of an SIE is therefore less likely (though it could still be quite fast). Read it here: https://t.co/JKz22lbXBF (See Davidson & Houlden 2026 here: https://t.co/EvxbHMR7EX)
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