Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag18h ago

A list of surprising and mind-boggling stats from this conversation: - $1B+ a year in transaction volume (still invite only) - Growing 10%+ A DAY and has spent zero dollars on marketing - 40% of users shared a personal credit card with Instinct within 3 weeks - Compute demand is doubling roughly every week - At 5 to 8% daily growth over the months it takes to bring new compute online, Instinct would reach about 100 million users - On Instinct's own A/B tests, it matches Opus 5 performance at a fraction of the cost - Noah spends about 40% of his time on compute - Buying compute at the last minute costs 3 to 4x more - Background work runs on setups that are 3x, 5x and 8x more efficient on the same compute - 50% of Instinct's transaction volume is travel - Instinct plans to take a cut of what users buy (take rates, Shopify is~2.5-3%, Amazon ~15%, Apple 30%) - Noah's personal goal is to keep Instinct free for everyone for life - Some small businesses run their entire back office on Instinct - Users who connect at least one piece of sensitive information retain at about 80% - Some users send more than 90% of their messages to Instinct by voice - Say an app makes 70% of its money from ads and 30% from actually selling you things. Agents could wipe out the 70%, but Noah thinks the 30% gets much bigger, because people buy more when buying takes zero effort - Instinct launched to about 200 friends and family - Invites have sold on eBay for around $300 - More than 50% of Instinct's traffic doesn't run on iMessage - Instinct has proactively called Noah three times - The company is less than a year old - Raised $1B at a $10B valuation, less than a month after raising at $2.5B - Noah is 23