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Planetary VC founder @ramez reveals that throwing 100 Claude Opus 5.5 agents at a problem was no better than using just 10, exposing a major limitation of AI swarms: "Test time compute scales worse than pre-training. Agents scale worse than test time compute. On the Opus 5.5 model card, it is like the worst scaling we've ever seen of anything." "The success of one agent was like 70%. It gained three points when you went to four agents, and then it gained two points when you went from four…
MTS@MTSlive2h ago
FULL INTERVIEW: Ramez Naam says AI's self-improvement loop is 5 to 10 times too weak to take off on its own, even with no humans in the loop. OpenAI researchers used 124x more tokens per person and ran just 1.6x more experiments. He says the labs' own data doesn't match what their leaders are claiming. @ramez, founder and managing partner of Planetary VC, made the case on Noahpinion that the intelligence explosion isn't close yet. He joined @theojaffee and @schisofrenia to lay out the numbers behind it: 00:58 where's the intelligence explosion 03:08 124x more tokens, 7x more code, 1.6x more experiments 03:54 what a self-sustaining loop would actually take 05:11 why the labs' claims don't match their own system cards 09:48 AI capex vs big tech's free cash flow 11:20 why AI revenue growth will likely slow 14:03 why hyper-persuasion might not be possible 15:21 a teenager's 1,000 miles vs Waymo's 10 million 16:39 the math result that could break the loop open 18:28 why TasteVal doesn't measure real research taste 23:11 the one AI regulation he wants 24:39 why agent swarms have the worst scaling we've seen 27:24 Opus 5.5 stalling at 10 agents, and Columbus, Ohio vs Einstein
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