@jason@JasonSep 5

My hyper-bull case is that 30% of global rides will be driven by AVs in 10 years. This will require ~120M+ cars doing ~25 rides a day ~360 days a year. It will cost ~$5T to build these cars at ~$40,000 each. 12M cars are built a year on average, but there will be a slow and steady ramp; perhaps 250k in 2027, 500k in 2028, 1m, 3m, etc (build your own model). Predict Tesla will be #1 in this space with 40% market share -- which would mean building ~50M cars in a decade. Zero to 40% market share and 5M cars a year on average is an insane ramp up -- but Tesla is the company best positioned to do this. Uber will be in second place with 35% market share, with two dozen partners putting absurdly cheap Chinese, Japanese, and purpose-built robotaxis into their fleet -- as no car maker wants to go head-to-head with Tesla building cars AND building a network. Waymo will buy a car maker in the next 12 months, creating a hybrid of Tesla and Uber: full-stack cars built in its factory, deployed on its network, and also added to Grab, Lyft, Uber, and other networks to increase utilization. The big story? Someone will need to fund FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF CARS 120M+ cars @ $40,000 each on average; some will be 15-20k two-seaters, some will be premium SUVS at $80,000. $7-10T+ in annual revenue is at stake for AVs alone. At a 20-40%+ gross margin, $1-2T+ in EBIDA/cash flow, we will be talking about ~20-30T in market cap. Waymo and Uber are worth ~$120B and $150B; Tesla is worth $1.4T at the moment. There's 18-28T in market cap about to be created. Please run this through your own LLMs and models... move the variables around however you like. $5 average ride, $10 average ride, $50k average vehicle cost, etc. 10% of total rides... 50% of total rides... ... however you slice it, this will be the largest market in the world for AI over the next decade. After that, human robotics will be the TAM/biggest market cap opportunity in the world... but we can do that model next.