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Why Matteo might just win with Muse “As software, it is very, very good. It instantly works. This is the definition of great software. Meta already has the infrastructure, and this is running on its own LLM. From an infrastructure perspective, almost no one can compete. That is why it is fast. That is why it works well. You get all the VM, all the infrastructure, all the storage, and they have their own LLM.” @jasonlk Love to hear your thoughts @bigT_sheesh @wailord @hwchase17 @bernhardsson
Harry Stebbings@HarryStebbings18h ago
The biggest news in tech this week: - Dario Calls to "Pace the Frontier" - Instinct Raising $1BN at $10BN & Meta Launches Muse - Miro Sells for $1.35BN After a $17.5BN Valuation - Mistral Raises €3BN My notes below with @jasonlk and @rodriscoll: 1. Summary of the Problems and the Solutions Cyber risk is real, mass economic unemployment feels overblown, and losing control of recursive agents is difficult to assess. Meanwhile, proposed solutions range from unlikely to practically impossible to implement. 2. Why Is It Overblown and Not Nearly as Dramatic as Anthropic Makes It? If the government truly believed a San Francisco lab had a 10% chance of destroying humanity, it would intervene immediately. The lack of intervention suggests authorities do not view extreme existential risk claims as an imminent threat. 3. Why Is It Bullshit, Dario, to Think We Will Have International Alignment on AI? Global coordination on frontier AI ignores geopolitical reality. Getting democratic allies to agree is difficult enough, while expecting enforceable alignment with China and Russia makes international pacing agreements even harder to imagine. 4. Is the Personal Assistant Market a Market Where You Can Build a Standalone Company? Standalone AI assistants face a fundamental question: can they build durable businesses while valuations race into the billions and platform incumbents pursue the same market? 5. Why Meta Might Just Win With Muse Meta has a structural advantage because it owns the infrastructure and underlying LLM. While competitors spend $3 to $4 per user on compute, Meta can deliver fast, capable agentic workflows without the same infrastructure burden. 6. Is Dario Simply Being Strategic Ahead of an IPO With His Pacing Argument? One interpretation is that Anthropic’s pacing argument is effectively an S-1 risk factor discussed in public. By addressing existential risk now, leadership can make it a debated, understood issue rather than a roadshow problem later. 7. Why I Would Not Invest in the New Instinct Round Standalone AI assistants face brutal economics when incumbents have their own models, infrastructure, and enormous resources. Subsidizing $5 to $10 per user can turn millions of users into a massive annual compute bill that venture capital must keep funding. (links in comments)
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