"We are extremely bullish on AI [but] … in the next 10-15 years,

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"We are extremely bullish on AI [but] … in the next 10-15 years, growth rates upwards of 10% are extremely unlikely and a much more reasonable baseline is, say, 4-5% (which would already be massive)"

ben_moll@ben_moll1d ago

Q1: How do you write down a model that delivers 15% AI-driven GDP growth in 2030 like the folks at the Anthropic Institute? A1: It's easy and you can do it in a way any well-trained econ undergrad understands: take a standard Solow model, stick in a task-based production function, calibrate in seemingly innocuous way ➡️ done! See the supplement to the essay with @alexolegimas https://t.co/60SLfKF55c (The Anthropic model is, of course, fancier with many more bells and whistles but the basic logic – AI removes labor as a bottleneck on growth – is the same.) Q2: Does this mean that 15% growth is a reasonable prediction? A2: No. Just because you can write down such a model doesn't mean you should. Just because it's possible in theory, doesn't mean it will actually happen in practice ! Instead you're making a number of assumptions that are unlikely to hold: https://t.co/PWlIyLgkxe