Harry Stebbings@HarryStebbings6h ago

For the last 5 decades straight, we have created (as a society) circa 20 decacorns per decade. In the last 12 months, we have created 42. The world is changing faster than ever before and if you do not stay up to date. You will be left behind. That is why I created this show with Jason and Rory. This is the only show in tech, you have to listen to every week. No egos, no politics, just tech. On the agenda: - Valar Atomics Sues Day One Ventures - Meta Returns to the AI Frontier With Muse Wonder - NVIDIA Eyes $30B Reflection Deal - Jev Raises $870M at a $7.5B Valuation My notes below with @jasonlk and @rodriscoll 1. We Generated 20 $10B Companies per Decade for the Last 5 Decades and Now 42 in a Year Tech produced roughly 20 decacorns per decade for five decades, yet 42 have been created in less than a year of this decade. Only about 130 tech companies have ever been worth $10B or more. Rising market caps explain part of the jump, but the pace is stunning. 2. Who Is Right and Who Is Wrong: Day One or Valar? X wrongly claimed Day One was suing its portfolio company, when Valar Atomics wants a declaratory judgment to move on. Waiving pro rata for Sequoia is common, but letting an existing investor in as a strategic is playing favorites. Still, once founders decide, early investors must get with the program because it is not their company. 3. Why Meta's New Model Is a Zero Meta's new model scores well on evals, but there is no API and it can only be used inside Muse. A model claiming parity at the same price, not cheaper and not usable by developers, is the height of performative evals. 4. Why We Should Lead Jev's Round at 8 Billion Jev is a super fast, super cheap classifier, accurate enough for maybe 10% of AI use cases. Cloudflare and Amazon can match it today, but the bet is that a focused team out of OpenAI pulls ahead while those efforts stay niche. If Jev becomes hyper accurate, it changes the game. 5. What Is the Single Greatest Potential for AI? Drug discovery is probably AI's largest opportunity, with drugs that dramatically extend longevity and quality of life. If AI companies can accelerate discovery and own the IP while others do the hard work, AI could reboot the industry. Trials would not speed up, but the prize is a GLP-1 out five years faster. 6. Haiku 5.5 Is the First Time AI Has Been Deflationary Falling token prices have been offset by consuming far more tokens, so AI costs have not fallen. Haiku 5.5 is almost as good as Sonnet for many use cases at a tenth of the price, and Sonnet 5.5 is twice as fast. After a 90% price cut, usage must rise 10 times for revenue to hold. 7. Why the SaaSpocalypse Is Worse Than We Thought The SaaSpocalypse passed only for companies well above $1B in revenue, and everyone without massive scale is living a worse one than in March or April. Leaders will acquire some companies and grind out the rest. A safe software IPO may now need $1.5B to $2B of ARR rather than $500M. (links in comments)