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Press Space to continue
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This feels similar to every web 1.0 company needing to build on Oracle. Oracle was the only "frontier" option at scale. By the 2010s, every new company was built on Postgres instead. Supabase and Neon eventually came in to productize it. Feeling this already with models. We're moving some workloads to open source (US hosted) models and are getting 5x the margin + data sovereignty/independence already... and the quality feels very similar.
I’m running out of reasons to believe the labs will have moats when it’s all set and done. Models? Unless someone reaches runaway self improvement, doesn’t seem like it. Everyone catches up within months. Compute? That’s a cost, not a moat. Same chips for everyone. Capital? You don’t even need a working model to raise right now. Everyone wants in on AI. Talent? Follows the capital. Training data? The web’s been scraped to death. Everyone’s got the same stuff. Lock-in? Routing makes models swappable. It’s a config change, maybe. And smart routing eliminates even that. Regulation? Good luck once the weights are open. AI is being unbundled.