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"I can imagine the jobs eliminated. I'm not imaginative enough to think of all the jobs that will be newly created. I see a net decline in jobs." @HowardMarksBook says AI is innovating faster than society can adjust, and even if we could adapt, we'll see a significant period of job market dislocation. "There are people who say, 'I have great news, people aren't going to have to work.' To me that's terrible news. We get a great deal from our work other than a paycheck. How are those elements of life going to be replaced?"
John on $NVDA: Even if TSMC does scale up magically, or they figure out how to build another fab, or Arizona increases capacity, you could still wind up in a weird scenario: Nvidia has the chips, they're ready to sell them, the hyperscalers want to buy them, and the AI labs want to run inference on them, but there's just not enough energy. The question is, when does the chip bottleneck shift to the energy bottleneck? That could be part of what is worrying people.
Salesforce CEO @benioff says he doesn’t see consumption-based business models overtaking the seat-based model: “I don’t know which Anthropic product you’re using, but the one I’m using is seat-based. I don’t know which OpenAI product you’re using, but mine is seat-based." "This is about humans and agents. Humans are seats. And then we have agents, too, and they’re using APIs." "It’s still humans and agents working together. That is what is exciting about the future of enterprise software." "That’s how I see it unfolding. It’s about a world where there are apps and agents - where LLMs extend our capability. They make us better, stronger, and give us the ability to do more. "Seats still exist. And consumption exists.”
SemiAnalysis' @fabknowledge says that China, not the US, will lead agentic commerce adoption, just like it did with mobile payments: "I would argue that for global internet consumer behavior, China is the leading indicator. America is a laggard boomer."
“The thing that will differentiate you more in your career than anything else is being the most hyper-curious person.” - @bgurley “If you are the most curious person constantly learning in your field, you will do extremely well.” “I can’t make you the most talented person in your company or your field, but you have no excuse not to be the most knowledgeable person. The information is all out there.”
John: There's this whole idea that you'll be able to build your own CRM and vibecode it. But open-source CRMs already exist. There are open-source alternatives to almost every piece of software, and SaaS has always withstood the pressure. I used an open-source forum software for a while, and very quickly I called the person maintaining it and said, "I'll pay you $1,000 to just do this for me." Then it became a managed service very quickly. I think it's underrated that open-source CRMs have existed for decades and never really taken off, because there's something else that's valuable there.
Radiant CEO @DougBernauer on the lessons he learned working at SpaceX and The Boring Company, and reporting directly to Elon Musk: "I would just go and talk to whoever I needed. I'd cross every line possible. I didn't use the right channels of communication. I just pulled all the assets - I'm building a thing, and I'm ignoring everything else. That's still how I operate." "I loved it. It's why I stayed 12 years. It's the coolest mission - make life multi planetary. I left to make a reactor company to make power for that mission still." "I made the first Falcon 9 ground system. Then I made the first two rockets. I traveled around the country testing the first two Falcon 9's that flew. Then I did the first ever rocket with legs." "That was reporting directly to Elon with three other people. We'd go to his desk, and tell him what we were doing. We got so lucky - every time we came to him, we were pretty much like, 'The qual tank passed and it worked, and the schedule's good.' So, he loved it." "Then I was doing The Boring Company and Hyperloop - basically every Elon side project."
Sammy Azdoufal (@n0tsa) recently thought it might be fun to see if he could control his new DJI robotic vacuum with his PS5 controller. Within a few hours, he had the ability to both see and hear inside 7,000 DJI vacuum owners' homes, and control the devices with super low latency. Sammy discovered the bug when he was trying to program the vacuum to make crying noises when it reached 30% battery. While reverse engineering the DJI Home app so he could figure out his vacuum's battery status, DJI sent him data on all existing DJI vacuums of that model. Sammy then contacted his friend, who also had a DJI vacuum, and quickly found he could both see and hear his friend through his DJI vacuum, as well as control it. Sammy says DJI hasn't fixed the bug completely, and that being able to see through the vacuums is still possible. Here's his full breakdown of finding the bug:
SemiAnalysis' @fabknowledge says AI-driven job loss won’t hurt incumbents, but new grads without experience will see “most of the carnage.” “I’m doing more work than ever, but I’m working harder than I’ve ever worked. The reality is - there is a productivity uplift. But I guess we’re all in the sugar high, where you’re able to do so much work that you’re just going around crushing it." "So these software engineers - you don’t need new grads. The person who has the seat gets to print more." "It’s really great for the install base of people who’ve been doing it, but very terrible for net-new. The net-new is where you’re going to see this — meaning new grads and new people entering information services. That’s where you’re going to see most of the carnage.”
“In the last 4–5 months, we stopped typing code.” Cognition CEO @ScottWu46 says almost all coding at Cognition is really just done through prompts now: “The code that we check into GitHub, how much of it was typed by a human at this point? Almost none.” “Now it looks a lot more like: how do we optimize testing, review, and planning - not how do we make AI good at writing code based on the prompt you give. At this point, it’s frankly already done.”
Area's @johnpalmer: "I did buy a Mac Mini. Setting it up was the best 48 hours of my life. Since then, I haven't used it very much." "Basically I realized the only thing I really needed it for was coding remotely and repos I'm working on, or side projects when I'm out on my phone. And you can already do that with a million other tools." "Actually, even the Claude app — you can connect it to whatever repo. Like you can literally just use Claude Code in the app. There was really very little delta it provided in terms of value, beyond what I was already doing."
"Have you been noticing the instability of public clouds?" "YouTube went down. I don't remember a time in the last five years that YouTube has gone down." SemiAnalysis' @fabknowledge breaks down his "conspiracy theory" that a hidden CPU shortage is behind recent cloud outages.
NVIDIA Earnings, Howard Marks Live on Market Cycles, DJI Vacuum Hacker Joins, Baby Keem is Vibecoding https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1yKAPMPNaZqxb
"It would be really ironic if we invite retail investors into a Goldman-led SPV of OpenAI or Anthropic right before the reset." @bgurley says the AI boom is real, but the industry is starting to look speculative: "There's an interesting irony that if you wanted AI exposure, you're pretty good just owning the index. Nvidia is such a large part of the index, you have exposure to Microsoft, Google, and Facebook." "Every time there's a new technology wave people get rich quick. When people get rich quick, speculators come in, charlatans, those kinds of things. And eventually that leads to a bubble." "People are confused when they say, 'Oh you say it's a bubble, you're anti-AI.' No, the fact that it's real causes the bubble, and that's why bulls rush in." "At the beginning of the gold rush there was really gold there—they were finding it. At the end, it got speculative." "I think it would be really ironic if we invite retail investors into a Goldman-led SPV of OpenAI or Anthropic right before the reset, which I think would be the most likely thing that would happen."
CUDA is both Nvidia’s biggest strategic advantage, and a massive constraint. MatX CEO @reinerpope says Jensen could scrap CUDA’s backward-compatibility guarantee, but likely won’t because it would erode Nvidia’s ecosystem lock-in: “Their promise is you can take a CUDA program written 10 years ago and run it on the next-gen Nvidia GPU.” “That means the next-gen GPU has to look a lot like the GPU from 10 years ago.” “The CUDA lock-in is very valuable in the mid and tail of the market, where people are sensitive to software costs. But at the head of the market in the frontier labs, software isn’t the main cost. Hardware is.”
